Post by TennisHack on May 27, 2005 11:44:43 GMT -5
Series-ious Business
The U. S. Open series is getting more serious by the year. It's not just that they've gotten more events to sign on (though they have). They're doing more marketing; they've even adopted an Official Court Color.
Of course, if it's court color that makes a series, Roland Garros already has one: The brick color of red clay. When the U. S. Open series came out, there was talk of some sort of European equivalent.
It's hard to imagine such a lead-in for Wimbledon or the Australian Open; there just isn't enough grass or Rebound Ace. But Roland Garros? Why not?
We can at least look at what the results would be if there were such a thing.
First, though, we have to deal with some rather complex problems arising out of the way the U. S. Open series is defined. Both problems exist primarily for the women. The USOS, in simplest terms, consists of the American hardcourt events between Wimbledon and the U. S. Open. So it's defined both by surface and by continent. So, for the French Open Series, do clay events not in Europe count?
For the men, this really doesn't matter much; we're talking only about Houston and Casablanca, and Casablanca is close enough to Europe as makes no real difference (just as the Canadian Open is allowed to be part of the U. S. Open series). When we get to them, we'll just leave out Houston.
But what about the women? They have only five major clay events, other than Roland Garros: Amelia Island, Charleston, Warsaw, Berlin, Rome. And the first two of those are in North America. What's more, they aren't on red clay; they're played on green clay. If the idea is to figure out who is actually best on clay, they should count -- but if the idea is to build a lead-up to Roland Garros, they shouldn't.
Given what seems to be the purpose of the U. S. Open series, it appears we should leave them out. So that's what we'll do. But it's something that needs to be considered with care if this ever actually comes off. After all, the only real justification for the USOS is to support the smaller events before the Open; the Open itself doesn't need the help. And, by that light, Charleston and Amelia Island could probably use the support.
The other problem is the way the points are awarded. The USOS essentially uses a system based on the ATP points table -- no quality points. And, for the women, that also means that it undervalues the Tier II events. On the other hand, there is only one Tier II in the Roland Garros Series as defined (Warsaw), and it was rather weak. So we'll sort of split the difference. We'll adopt a very simple system: The winner of a Tier I (Berlin, Rome) earns 300 RGS points. The winner of a Tier II (Warsaw) gets 220. A Tier III (Strasbourg, Istanbul) is worth 150 (though this shows why we need quality points: Strasbourg should be worth a lot more than Istanbul). The other clay events, being Tier IV, are worth 100.
From there, we use the (approximate) standard ratios: 70% of the winner's total for the finalist, 45% to the semifinalist, 25% to the quarterfinalist, then 14%, then 8%, with one point for an opening round loss.
In other words, we have this table:
..........Tier1...Tier2...Tier3...Tier4
Win.........300.....220.....150.....100
Final.......210.....154.....105......70
SF..........135......99......68......45
QF...........75......55......38......25
R16..........42......31......21......14
R32..........24......--......--......--
1R............1.......1.......1.......1
We were amazed to find that the 296 main draw slots at the eight clay events of the Roland Garros Series were divided among no fewer than 150 different players. Their Roland Garros Series scores were as follows:
Rank..Player.....RGS Points
1...Henin-Hardenne....520
2...Schnyder..........400
3...Mauresmo..........375
4...Petrova...........252
5...Kuznetsova........230
6...Zvonareva.........212
7...Sharapova.........210
8...Bovina............205
9...Medina Garrigues..198
10...Safina............169
11...Jankovic..........159
12...Williams, V.......150
13...Smashnova.........147
14...Ivanovic..........142
15...Clijsters.........141
16...Domachowska.......136
17...Dechy.............125
18...Randriantefy......118
19...Martinez..........117
20...Zheng.............116
21...LiNa..............115
22...Dulko.............111
23...Vaidisova.........105
24...Ondraskova........101
25T..Llagostera........100
25T..Safarova..........100
27...Farina Elia........98
28...Groenefeld.........86
29...Pierce.............84
30...Peng...............81
31...Vento..............79
32T..Linetskaya.........76
32T..Schiavone..........76
34...Craybas............75
35...Koukalova..........70
36...Pironkova..........68
37...Loit...............67
38T..Chakvetadze........64
38T..Sugiyama...........64
40T..Cohen Aloro........63
40T..Suarez.............63
42...Kirilenko..........56
43T..Diaz-Oliva.........52
43T..Vakulenko..........52
45...Pennetta...........49
46...Benesova...........48
47T..Pous Tio...........45
47T..Razzano............45
49T..Castano............44
49T..Shaughnessy........44
51T..Hrdlickova.........42
51T..Schruff............42
53T..Douchevina.........40
53T..Sprem..............40
55T..Peer...............39
55T..Washington.........39
57...Hantuchova.........33
58T..Pastikova..........29
58T..Pratt..............29
60...Kremer.............28
61T..Parra Santonja.....27
61T..Serra Zanetti, An..27
63T..Garbin.............26
63T..Maleeva............26
65T..Brandi.............25
65T..Camerin............25
65T..Daniilidou.........25
65T..Dominguez Lino.....25
65T..Likhovtseva........25
65T..Mamic..............25
65T..Stosur.............25
72T..Santangelo.........24
72T..Vinci..............24
74T..Fedak..............23
74T..Marrero............23
76...Panova.............22
77T..Abramovic..........21
77T..Frazier............21
77T..Gagliardi..........21
77T..Hopkins............21
77T..Morigami...........21
77T..Vesnina............21
83T..Cervanova..........16
83T..Dokic..............16
83T..Schaul.............16
86T..BondarenkoA........15
86T..BondarenkoK........15
86T..Kostanic...........15
86T..Matevzic...........15
86T..Muller.............15
86T..Nagyova............15
86T..Sanchez Lorenzo....15
86T..Savchuk............15
86T..Strycova...........15
95T..Cho................14
95T..Drake..............14
95T..Jackson............14
95T..Krajicek...........14
95T..Yan................14
100T..Chladkova...........3
100T..Sucha...............3
100T..Tanasugarn..........3
103T..Asagoe..............2
103T..Beltrame............2
103T..Czink...............2
103T..Golovin.............2
103T..Haynes..............2
103T..Jidkova.............2
103T..Kurhajcova..........2
103T..Osterloh............2
103T..Perebiynis..........2
103T..Prusova.............2
103T..Ruano Pascual.......2
103T..Serra Zanetti, Ad...2
103T..Weingartner.........2
103T..Zuluaga.............2
117T..Bammer..............1
117T..Barna...............1
117T..Bohmova.............1
117T..Buyukakcay..........1
117T..Dementieva..........1
117T..Foretz..............1
117T..Gehrlein............1
117T..Gloria..............1
117T..Gussoni.............1
117T..Hisamatsu...........1
117T..Hlavackova, A.......1
117T..Ifrakh..............1
117T..Irvin...............1
117T..Kachlikova..........1
117T..Kloesel.............1
117T..Kosinska............1
117T..Meusburger..........1
117T..Mihalache...........1
117T..Mouhtassine.........1
117T..Myskina.............1
117T..Obziler.............1
117T..Ozgen...............1
117T..Rao.................1
117T..Raymond.............1
117T..Rubin...............1
117T..Silva...............1
117T..Srebotnik...........1
117T..Sromova.............1
117T..Stanciute...........1
117T..Tu..................1
117T..UberoiS.............1
117T..Vierin..............1
117T..Williams, S.........1
117T..Yakimova............1
Just for comparison, we decided to look at the actual European clay points earned by the seeds and potential seeds at Roland Garros. The Top 20 in that measure:
Rank..Player....Clay Points
1....Henin-Hardenne....770
2....Schnyder..........574
3....Mauresmo..........514
4....Petrova...........368
5....Kuznetsova........297
6....Sharapova.........296
7....Bovina............261
8....Ivanovic..........248
9....Jankovic..........226
10....Safina............208
11....Dulko.............207
12....Clijsters.........191
13....Smashnova.........187
14....Zvonareva.........179
15....Schiavone.........162
16....Williams, Venus...144
17....Martinez..........143
18....Dechy.............141
19....Pierce............129
20....Suarez............126
This does not quite match the RG Series scores. If we compare the above numbers with the RG Series results, we get the following:
Clay Pts
Rank..Player......RG Series...DIFF
1....Henin-Hardenne......1......0
2....Schnyder............2......0
3....Mauresmo............3......0
4....Petrova.............4......0
5....Kuznetsova..........5......0
6....Sharapova...........7.....-1
7....Bovina..............8.....-1
8....Ivanovic...........14.....-6
9....Jankovic...........11.....-2
10....Safina.............10......0
11....Dulko..............22....-11
12....Clijsters..........15.....-3
13....Smashnova..........13......0
14....Zvonareva...........6......8
15....Schiavone..........32....-17
16....Williams, Venus....12......4
17....Martinez...........19.....-2
18....Dechy..............17......1
19....Pierce.............29....-10
20....Suarez.............40....-20
Still, the top five names are the same, so maybe the Roland Garros Series scores aren't that far wrong. It all depends on what you want to measure, perhaps. But the lower levels show how important quality points are: Dulko falls dramatically in the Roland Garros series because many of her points were quality points (she beat Hantuchova at Berlin and Dementieva at Rome), while Venus stands higher in the Roland Garros series, which emphasizes round points -- and she earned a lot of round points, but few quality points, at Istanbul.
The U. S. Open series is getting more serious by the year. It's not just that they've gotten more events to sign on (though they have). They're doing more marketing; they've even adopted an Official Court Color.
Of course, if it's court color that makes a series, Roland Garros already has one: The brick color of red clay. When the U. S. Open series came out, there was talk of some sort of European equivalent.
It's hard to imagine such a lead-in for Wimbledon or the Australian Open; there just isn't enough grass or Rebound Ace. But Roland Garros? Why not?
We can at least look at what the results would be if there were such a thing.
First, though, we have to deal with some rather complex problems arising out of the way the U. S. Open series is defined. Both problems exist primarily for the women. The USOS, in simplest terms, consists of the American hardcourt events between Wimbledon and the U. S. Open. So it's defined both by surface and by continent. So, for the French Open Series, do clay events not in Europe count?
For the men, this really doesn't matter much; we're talking only about Houston and Casablanca, and Casablanca is close enough to Europe as makes no real difference (just as the Canadian Open is allowed to be part of the U. S. Open series). When we get to them, we'll just leave out Houston.
But what about the women? They have only five major clay events, other than Roland Garros: Amelia Island, Charleston, Warsaw, Berlin, Rome. And the first two of those are in North America. What's more, they aren't on red clay; they're played on green clay. If the idea is to figure out who is actually best on clay, they should count -- but if the idea is to build a lead-up to Roland Garros, they shouldn't.
Given what seems to be the purpose of the U. S. Open series, it appears we should leave them out. So that's what we'll do. But it's something that needs to be considered with care if this ever actually comes off. After all, the only real justification for the USOS is to support the smaller events before the Open; the Open itself doesn't need the help. And, by that light, Charleston and Amelia Island could probably use the support.
The other problem is the way the points are awarded. The USOS essentially uses a system based on the ATP points table -- no quality points. And, for the women, that also means that it undervalues the Tier II events. On the other hand, there is only one Tier II in the Roland Garros Series as defined (Warsaw), and it was rather weak. So we'll sort of split the difference. We'll adopt a very simple system: The winner of a Tier I (Berlin, Rome) earns 300 RGS points. The winner of a Tier II (Warsaw) gets 220. A Tier III (Strasbourg, Istanbul) is worth 150 (though this shows why we need quality points: Strasbourg should be worth a lot more than Istanbul). The other clay events, being Tier IV, are worth 100.
From there, we use the (approximate) standard ratios: 70% of the winner's total for the finalist, 45% to the semifinalist, 25% to the quarterfinalist, then 14%, then 8%, with one point for an opening round loss.
In other words, we have this table:
..........Tier1...Tier2...Tier3...Tier4
Win.........300.....220.....150.....100
Final.......210.....154.....105......70
SF..........135......99......68......45
QF...........75......55......38......25
R16..........42......31......21......14
R32..........24......--......--......--
1R............1.......1.......1.......1
We were amazed to find that the 296 main draw slots at the eight clay events of the Roland Garros Series were divided among no fewer than 150 different players. Their Roland Garros Series scores were as follows:
Rank..Player.....RGS Points
1...Henin-Hardenne....520
2...Schnyder..........400
3...Mauresmo..........375
4...Petrova...........252
5...Kuznetsova........230
6...Zvonareva.........212
7...Sharapova.........210
8...Bovina............205
9...Medina Garrigues..198
10...Safina............169
11...Jankovic..........159
12...Williams, V.......150
13...Smashnova.........147
14...Ivanovic..........142
15...Clijsters.........141
16...Domachowska.......136
17...Dechy.............125
18...Randriantefy......118
19...Martinez..........117
20...Zheng.............116
21...LiNa..............115
22...Dulko.............111
23...Vaidisova.........105
24...Ondraskova........101
25T..Llagostera........100
25T..Safarova..........100
27...Farina Elia........98
28...Groenefeld.........86
29...Pierce.............84
30...Peng...............81
31...Vento..............79
32T..Linetskaya.........76
32T..Schiavone..........76
34...Craybas............75
35...Koukalova..........70
36...Pironkova..........68
37...Loit...............67
38T..Chakvetadze........64
38T..Sugiyama...........64
40T..Cohen Aloro........63
40T..Suarez.............63
42...Kirilenko..........56
43T..Diaz-Oliva.........52
43T..Vakulenko..........52
45...Pennetta...........49
46...Benesova...........48
47T..Pous Tio...........45
47T..Razzano............45
49T..Castano............44
49T..Shaughnessy........44
51T..Hrdlickova.........42
51T..Schruff............42
53T..Douchevina.........40
53T..Sprem..............40
55T..Peer...............39
55T..Washington.........39
57...Hantuchova.........33
58T..Pastikova..........29
58T..Pratt..............29
60...Kremer.............28
61T..Parra Santonja.....27
61T..Serra Zanetti, An..27
63T..Garbin.............26
63T..Maleeva............26
65T..Brandi.............25
65T..Camerin............25
65T..Daniilidou.........25
65T..Dominguez Lino.....25
65T..Likhovtseva........25
65T..Mamic..............25
65T..Stosur.............25
72T..Santangelo.........24
72T..Vinci..............24
74T..Fedak..............23
74T..Marrero............23
76...Panova.............22
77T..Abramovic..........21
77T..Frazier............21
77T..Gagliardi..........21
77T..Hopkins............21
77T..Morigami...........21
77T..Vesnina............21
83T..Cervanova..........16
83T..Dokic..............16
83T..Schaul.............16
86T..BondarenkoA........15
86T..BondarenkoK........15
86T..Kostanic...........15
86T..Matevzic...........15
86T..Muller.............15
86T..Nagyova............15
86T..Sanchez Lorenzo....15
86T..Savchuk............15
86T..Strycova...........15
95T..Cho................14
95T..Drake..............14
95T..Jackson............14
95T..Krajicek...........14
95T..Yan................14
100T..Chladkova...........3
100T..Sucha...............3
100T..Tanasugarn..........3
103T..Asagoe..............2
103T..Beltrame............2
103T..Czink...............2
103T..Golovin.............2
103T..Haynes..............2
103T..Jidkova.............2
103T..Kurhajcova..........2
103T..Osterloh............2
103T..Perebiynis..........2
103T..Prusova.............2
103T..Ruano Pascual.......2
103T..Serra Zanetti, Ad...2
103T..Weingartner.........2
103T..Zuluaga.............2
117T..Bammer..............1
117T..Barna...............1
117T..Bohmova.............1
117T..Buyukakcay..........1
117T..Dementieva..........1
117T..Foretz..............1
117T..Gehrlein............1
117T..Gloria..............1
117T..Gussoni.............1
117T..Hisamatsu...........1
117T..Hlavackova, A.......1
117T..Ifrakh..............1
117T..Irvin...............1
117T..Kachlikova..........1
117T..Kloesel.............1
117T..Kosinska............1
117T..Meusburger..........1
117T..Mihalache...........1
117T..Mouhtassine.........1
117T..Myskina.............1
117T..Obziler.............1
117T..Ozgen...............1
117T..Rao.................1
117T..Raymond.............1
117T..Rubin...............1
117T..Silva...............1
117T..Srebotnik...........1
117T..Sromova.............1
117T..Stanciute...........1
117T..Tu..................1
117T..UberoiS.............1
117T..Vierin..............1
117T..Williams, S.........1
117T..Yakimova............1
Just for comparison, we decided to look at the actual European clay points earned by the seeds and potential seeds at Roland Garros. The Top 20 in that measure:
Rank..Player....Clay Points
1....Henin-Hardenne....770
2....Schnyder..........574
3....Mauresmo..........514
4....Petrova...........368
5....Kuznetsova........297
6....Sharapova.........296
7....Bovina............261
8....Ivanovic..........248
9....Jankovic..........226
10....Safina............208
11....Dulko.............207
12....Clijsters.........191
13....Smashnova.........187
14....Zvonareva.........179
15....Schiavone.........162
16....Williams, Venus...144
17....Martinez..........143
18....Dechy.............141
19....Pierce............129
20....Suarez............126
This does not quite match the RG Series scores. If we compare the above numbers with the RG Series results, we get the following:
Clay Pts
Rank..Player......RG Series...DIFF
1....Henin-Hardenne......1......0
2....Schnyder............2......0
3....Mauresmo............3......0
4....Petrova.............4......0
5....Kuznetsova..........5......0
6....Sharapova...........7.....-1
7....Bovina..............8.....-1
8....Ivanovic...........14.....-6
9....Jankovic...........11.....-2
10....Safina.............10......0
11....Dulko..............22....-11
12....Clijsters..........15.....-3
13....Smashnova..........13......0
14....Zvonareva...........6......8
15....Schiavone..........32....-17
16....Williams, Venus....12......4
17....Martinez...........19.....-2
18....Dechy..............17......1
19....Pierce.............29....-10
20....Suarez.............40....-20
Still, the top five names are the same, so maybe the Roland Garros Series scores aren't that far wrong. It all depends on what you want to measure, perhaps. But the lower levels show how important quality points are: Dulko falls dramatically in the Roland Garros series because many of her points were quality points (she beat Hantuchova at Berlin and Dementieva at Rome), while Venus stands higher in the Roland Garros series, which emphasizes round points -- and she earned a lot of round points, but few quality points, at Istanbul.
